No, we’re not picking Dustin Johnson to win the 146th Open Championship.
No, Brooks Koepka will not make it two in a row.
Jordan Spieth will get tangled up in the gorse, sooner or later.
Today, we offer what we call our “Outside-The-Box” list of contenders, our favorites who will be able to successfully plod their way around Royal Birkdale.
First thing to know is that this course in the Open rota, requires an extraordinary amount of course management, maybe more than any other course in the rota.
Second, it is not long by modern standards — less than 7,200 yards. Don’t be fooled, it is not a bomber’s paradise.
Third, there are 123 bunkers on this links course that looks out over the Irish Sea.
Fourth, rain will be a factor. Thursday’s clear but there’s 70 percent chance of wet stuff on Friday, 70 percent on Saturday and 50 percent on Sunday. Note that Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar were doing really well last week in Scotland until they had to don the weatherproofs on Saturday.
We’re excited, this is golf’s purest major as it returns to golf’s childhood. This is how the game grew up.
With that in mind, forget Vegas, forget the oddsmakers, here are the guys we like:
JUSTIN ROSE: It was here at Royal Birkdale that we met the young amateur from England back in 1998. He holed out his third shot at the 18th hole on the final day for birdie, tied for fourth and today is a major champion and the Olympic Gold Medalist. This may be his time to win on home soil.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD: If you haven’t found out by now, then you haven’t been paying attention. Fleetwood has a LOT of game. Played in the final pairing with Koepka at Erin Hills. Won three weeks ago at the French Open on the course where the 2018 Ryder Cup will be staged. This is where he grew up, where Tommy and his dad used to sneak on to Royal Birkdale late in the day when members were on their third round of Scotch Whiskey. Or a third round of Guiness.
SERGIO GARCIA: Has the ball-striking skill-set to tame Birkdale. Enough length and enough imagination to get the job done. He’s getting married at the end of the month but assures everyone that he’s totally focused on the Open Championship. He’s come close in this major. Maybe this is his year.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA: Has that wonderful tempo to cope with the wind, will have to adjust to the rain. His putting often lets him down when the pressure gets turned up a few notches in these big championships.
PAUL CASEY: Casey’s been hanging around early and often this season. He has the game to win if his putter will cooperate. Will play tough in tough conditions.
JON RAHM: He was awesome two weeks ago in Ireland. Might want to be careful about marking his golf ball this week. Tough guy, enormous talent. Ready for a major? Maybe, maybe not.
HENRIK STENSON: Had the round of a lifetime last year on the final day at Royal Troon against Phil Mickelson. He returned the Claret Jug on Monday. Wants it back. Can you blame him?
RAFA CABRERA-BELLO: Anyone who can step up in a playoff and hit a three-wood from 275 yards to 15 feet to win the Scottish Open HAS to be on our list. This guy has a lot of game and a lot of heart.
BEEF JOHNSTON: Andrew will be the most popular guy on the grounds at Royal Birkdale this week. His everyman demeanor has made him the instant darling of the British, Scottish and Irish fans. He hasn’t been heard from in a while, if there’s enough good red meat on hand this week, Beef could be the man to watch. No time in the gym for this guy but he just might show up at a local pub early in the week.
THOMAS PIETERS: He’s been struggling a bit but has the skill set to contend. You remember him from the 2016 Ryder Cup when he was one of the bright spots on the European roster.
There you have it — 10 to watch, 10 to consider.
Not your everyday favorites, for sure. And yes, no Americans.
Imagine that.
