Players Picks: The Obvious Is Obviously Wrong At TPC Sawgrass

With The Beatdown At Bay Hill behind us, it’s time for the PGA Tour’s big one — its flagship, its trophy event — The Players.

Still can’t figure out why the Tour insists on putting The Players in all caps on its site — maybe it’s major envy — after all, the Tour has no say, no nothing when it comes to the four major championships in golf.  Perhaps that’s why the powers-that-be at Ponte Vedra have been whispering “Fifth Major” into the ear of any media member willing to listen.  That ones been around forever yet to find a “Fifth Major” you have to venture over to the LPGA Tour.

So here we are at a week that is predictably unpredictable.  You never know who might pop up and win this thing.  This is the 20th anniversary of the most stunning upset winner ever at The Players — Craig Perks.  You can find him these days doing some commentary work on the Korn-Ferry Tour.

We knew Perks when he was a likeable young assistant pro at Le Triomphe in Lafayette, La.  We called him “Our Bloke.”  His swing at the time looked a lot like Sir Nick Faldos.  None of us had any idea that one day the kid would win the big one.  In fact, it was the only one Perks would get.  Right place, right time, right shots.

So this week, it’s as sketchy as ever when it comes to the unstable art of picking favorites.  About the only thing we know for sure is that neither Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau nor Harris English will win this week — Tiger’s on the mend, Phil’s suspended, Bryson’s ailing as is Harris.

Biggest factor this week will be the weather.  Advance reports are not good — better than 75 percent chance of storms on Thursday, increases to 90 percent on Friday.  More rain Saturday and winds up to 25 miles per hour.  Ouch!  Cold front roars through north Florida.  Sunday is chilly with winds around 15 miles per hour.  Big trouble ahead to get 144 players around for first 36 holes.

So now that we know that bad weather will be the most talked-about part of this 40th anniversary Players, let’s get right to our picks, shall we?

Our First-Team Bad Weather Guys:

Scottie Scheffler:   The trend is your friend and who’s playing better than Scottie?  The more you watch him, the more you understand how good his overall game can be.  Caddies will be important this week with bad weather and thanks to Bubba Watson, Scottie’s got Teddy Scott on the bag.  Teddy took a lot of crap from Bubba, Scottie has to be a joy compared to Watson.

Talor Gooch:  Why not?  The Gooch did a pretty good job last week at Bay Hill.  The Oklahoma State guys are used to playing in the wind (see spring in Stillwater).  Have you noticed he’s already replaced Matt (Kooch the Caddie Mooch) Kuchar — seems spectators long to chant “G-0-0-0-0-ch!” instead of “K-0-0-0-ch!”

Viktor Hovland:  There’s something about Viktor.  Just keeps grinding.  With rains pummeling TPC Sawgrass seemingly every day but Sunday, slower putting surfaces will help him.  What a nice ball-striking who understands his weakness around the greens.

Collin Morikawa:  The kid loves to win and embraces the pressure situations.  Hope he’s a good mudder.

Shane Lowry:  Something tells us he can do okay in crappy weather conditions.

Players Who MIGHT Contend:

Cameron Smith:   Doesn’t care if the mullet gets wet, it look awful most of the time anyway.

Sepp Straka:  Only because he was the one guy who could hit a good shot at the Honda Classic in the pouring rain.

Hideki Matsuyama:  People probably forgot he shot 63 in 2020 on opening day then the Tour promptly canceled the tournament and sent everyone home thanks to COVID.

Patrick Cantlay:  He hasn’t played well at TPC Sawgrass.  Maybe he’s figured it out by now.  Play will be slow in bad weather and that suits Cantlay.

Jon Rahm:  The world No. 1 hasn’t shown much since the Tournament of Champions.  His compact swing should fare better in bad conditions.

The Third Tier:

Justin Thomas:  Sorry J.T., no one repeats as champion in this event.

Rory McIlroy:  Rory is pathetic in the wind, let’s see how pathetic he is in the wind and rain at TPC.  One would think growing up in Northern Ireland that he might understand bad weather but apparently Rory stayed at home when it was windy and rainy where he grew up.  As soon as the wind showed up at Bay Hill last week, Rory did the back-slide.

Russell Knox:  Unlike Rory, I think he went out in the wind and rain when he was growing up in Scotland.

Louie Oosthuizen:  I think Louie can handle the predicted crappy weather.

Gary Woodland:  His game is coming around.  He’s a pick on a sheer hunch.

The Fourth Tier:

Paul Casey:  Grinder, can play in the wind.

Brian Harman:  Our “longshot.”

Lee Westwood:  Was last year an aberration?  Enough experience to play well in bad weather.

Xander Schauffele:  Why do anyone pick this guy?  He does everything but win.

Ian Poulter:  Can grind it out when the going gets tough.

So there you have it.

This week will be incredibly unpredictable.  Friday weather report indicates trouble.  This thing could easily get off schedule.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it got pushed to a Monday finish.

Keep an eye on the weather —  it doesn’t look pretty.

Round One And Two Tee Times, Groups:

Television Broadcast Schedule:

Thursday-Friday:

The Golf Channel:  noon to 6 p.m. (EST)

Saturday:

NBC:  1 p.m. to 6 p.m. (EST)

Sunday:

NBC:  1 p.m. to 6 p.m. (EDT)