History suggests it is damn near impossible to win the U.S. Open in back-to-back years.
Jack Nicklaus never did.
Tiger Woods hasn’t.
Arnold Palmer failed.
So did Gary Player.
The great Ben Hogan went back-to-back in 1950 and 1951 at Merion and Oakland Hills respectively.
Last man to do it was Curtis Strange in 1988 at The Country Club in Brookline, MA., then in ’89 at Oak Hill outside Rochester.
No one since has done it. Twenty eight years have passed.
That history suggests Dustin Johnson won’t win this week at Erin Hills although he’s the betting favorite to do so.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some players who we believe can and cannot win this 117th U.S. Open Championship.
DUSTIN JOHNSON: D.J. was primed and ready to win The Masters in April until a stairway landing took him out. Now he’s back as the defending champion, he was simply awesome at Oakmont last year and saved the starched collars at the USGA from themselves. Penalty or no penalty, it was D.J. hoisting the trophy on Sunday afternoon. D.J. may not get to Erin Hills until Wednesday. He and fiancee Paulina Gretzky welcomed their second child, a boy on Monday.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not.
JORDAN SPIETH: Always a popular pick thanks to his victory at Chambers Bay two years ago. He disappointed at Oakmont last year. Something has been a bit off with Spieth this season. He looks good at times, then goes and hits some wayward shots. Any untimely wayward shots this week at Erin Hills will be devoured by the knee-high fescue.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not.
RORY MCILROY: This is a very tough call with the second-ranked player in the world. He’s been on the shelf for a few weeks, recovering from what is beginning to look like an injury that can nag him in the future. Can a player come into Erin Hills without much prep work and contend? Only if he is as talented as McIlroy. His putter will determine how effective he will be this week. And that putter will be a new one, untested in real playing conditions. Rory’s going to be using the red, TaylorMade Spider Tour model, same as Jason Day and Jon Rahm. Dustin Johnson uses a black one.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not.
JASON DAY: There been something missing in Day’s game this season. He appears healthy but something’s off. He was in the hunt last year at Oakmont, finished one-over par, three shots behind D.J.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Maybe.
SERGIO GARCIA: Surprised the world at The Masters. Only player with a chance at the Grand Slam. The U.S. Open is a ball-strikers tournament. Garcia may be the best overall ball striker in the field. Can his putter hold up? Maybe.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Don’t be surprised if he’s in the hunt on Sunday afternoon.
JON RAHM: This youngster has been incredible this season. He finally missed a cut two weeks ago at The Memorial but has been able to get in the hunt week-in and week-out this season. Has the right game for the U.S. Open.
Can he? Yes. Will he? He can, but maybe needs a bit more experience on this sort of world stage.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS:
RICKIE FOWLER, JUSTIN ROSE, HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, ADAM SCOTT, HENRIK STENSON:
World class players. Rose and Fowler missed the cut at Oakmont last year. Stenson’s never been that great in this event, Matsuyama tends to show nerves on the big stage. Adam Scott may have already won his only major.
Can they? Maybe. Will they? No.
SOME LONG SHOTS TO WATCH:
ALEX NOREN: This guy has a lot of game and has climbed to eighth in the Official World Golf Rankings. But no one talks about him much. This could be the week he steps up and becomes that big-name who wins his first major.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Don’t be surprised if he does.
SHANE LOWRY: He finished tied for second last year and was in the hunt at Chambers Bay in 2015. Has game but let his nerves get to him last year and the year before. Has more experience now and it would be no shock if he’s there again on Sunday afternoon.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Wouldn’t be a shocker if he does.
JASON DUFNER: Won in a big comeback at The Memorial. Has his confidence back. Finished one-over at Oakmont, was right there. Can be a factor this week.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Wouldn’t be surprised if he does.
GUYS WHO WON’T WIN:
PHIL MICKELSON: Won’t get to tee off unless there’s a four-hour rain delay on Thursday. There is a 60 percent chance of rain but it would take a lot of rain for a long time in order for Lefty to make it from California to Erin Hills in time for his 2:20 tee time. Even if they put him in a F-18 Hornet, he’s still battling the devil ball. It cost him dearly on the 12th at TPC Southwinds last week. No devil balls allowed at Erin Hills. They’ll keep you out of the winner’s circle.
KEVIN NA: He finished in the Top 10 at Oakmont but he’s already bitching about the high fescue grass at Erin Hills.
ALL AMATEURS: No prayer.
There you have it. Some food for thought. We honestly think there will be a “surprise” winner come Sunday. Maybe a guy on our list, maybe not. Whatever happens, weather is going to be a factor. It rained on Tuesday, more coming on Wednesday and Thursday. Will Phil Mickelson still have a chance to show up? This is gonna be fun!
2 Comments
beege
Hi Tom,
even if phil got there today he has no chance of winning. there are some outside possibilities and you mentioned a few–the curious thing for me is none of the top 10 are coming in hot. that makes it such a great call on which one(s) of them get hot because they will. dustin is just that kind of guy, so is spieth and rosey.
take your pick shapes up as a great thought.
bob
Tom Edrington
Bob, the weather is going to be a “major” factor. It will rain out most of the prep work. Only guys who went last week or over the weekend will have had full looks. It will be interesting to see how it plays. Fairways are fairly wide by USGA standards. If anyone gets in that fescue when it’s wet, good luck. This should be a fun one to watch if there aren’t too many weather delays. Calls for rain on Thurs, Fri and Sat.