Not sure anyone was touting Hideki Matsuyama to win The Masters in April and certainly no one saw Phil Mickelson coming at the PGA Championship last month.
Which brings us to U.S. Open week at Torrey Pines, third major of the season with everyone pointing to COVID-conquering Jon Rahm as the overwhelming favorite to win his first major championship.
But alas, we remind everyone of the old adage: “The obvious is obviously wrong.”
With that in mind, we once again dive feet-first into the dreaded, shark-infested waters of attempting to pick players who might hoist that trophy on Sunday.
So without further ado, let’s get to it, shall we?
The Popular Picks:
Jon Rahm: We all saw how he dismantled Muirfield Village for 54 holes and would certainly have won. Patrick Cantlay owes him 20% of the purse, for sure. Jon has a great track record at Torrey Pines, the vistas remind him of his hometown in Spain. He’s got a feel for the course but this week, the USGA totally controls how it will play. No rain in the picture which means ultra-firm and ultra-fast, as fast as the USGA wants it. Rahm is everyone’s pick and it would be pure karma and golf justice for him to win after what happened to him at The Memorial.
Brooks Koepka: Most puzzling man in golf. Looks like crap too often in regular Tour events and once again lived down to that last week at Congaree, missing the cut. But we’ve learned that he shows up at major with a different mind-set and different motivation. Surely getting boat-run by Phil at Kiawah didn’t sit well with Brooksie.
Byrson DeChambeau: Is Torrey Pines as difficult as Winged Foot? Experts will say “no” but with the length of Torrey Pines, advantage Bryson. Can he go back-to-back in this championship? That’s a tough task.
Phil Mickelson: It would be the story of the decade if Lefty won back-to-back majors and completed the career Grand Slam in his hometown. He’s been on site trying to regain the local knowledge he lost when the renovations took place a few years back. Phil hit 78 percent of the fairways at the Ocean Course and once again put on a marvelous short-game display. If he can come close to that many fairways this week — he’ll win!
Justin Thomas: Have no idea why we’re putting J.T. up here except the heading says “Popular Picks” and he is the world’s No. 2. But J.T. hasn’t done squat since winning The Players — missed the cut at the PGA (shame on you J.T.), tied for 40th at Colonial and tied for 42nd at The Memorial. Our expectations for J.T. this week are very, very low.
Picks Who Have Credentials:
Jordan Spieth: Still trending up but Jordy tweaked his right ankle a few days ago, was wearing KT tape on it when he practiced in shorts on Monday. If you’re going to tweak an ankle, better the right than the left. Jordy should be good to go and if he avoids the “devil ball” he can contend although we’re not sure about his record on Poa greens.
Hideki Matsuyama: Has the complete package. Perhaps he’s finally come back off Cloud Nine after winning The Masters.
Collin Morikawa: His putting still scares the bee-jeebers out of us.
Patrick Reed: About time he contended at a major. Too much short-game talent to not be a factor.
Dustin Johnson: D.J. has simply been awful in 2021. He’s managed just two top 10s — T8 at Genesis and T10 last week where he drove it poorly and missed A LOT of putts. Way too much talent to underachieve like this. Someone simply needs to tell D.J.: “WAKE THE HECK UP BIG FELLA!!!!”
Surprise Contenders:
Rory McIlroy: Rory won a U.S. Open when it was wet and sloppy at Congressional. Not sure firm and fast will be his cup of tea. When you watch his highlights, it looks like he should have won 15 majors by now but it those low-lights that prove why he has only four.
Marc Leishman: Knows how to manage his way around Torrey Pines.
Lee Westwood: Played great in 2008 and he’s turned back the clock with his renaissance of sorts. His short game will need to be great this week if Lee stuns the world and wins his first major championship.
Tyrrell Hatton: Solid ball-striker — England’s best bet to contend.
Garrick Higgo: We were telling everyone about this kid after watching him on the European Tour. He just turned 22 and was solid on Sunday last week and it resulted in a PGA Tour win and membership. This lefty is flying high, no doubt.
Bigger Surprises:
Viktor Hovland: The category does say “Biggers Surprises” doesn’t it?
Xander Schauffele: We stopped picking this guy as a top contender. Total underachiever.
Max Homa: Steady Eddie.
Wilco Nienaber: His driving distances during the first round at Congaree: 376, 366, 362, 354, 354, 348, 346, 343, 340, 339, 338, 335, 329. Take that, Bryson!
Paul Casey: Solid player, better choice to contend than win.
There’s our top 20.
Our 1-A and 1-B picks are Brooks and Phil; But make no mistake, we’re pulling for Jon Rahm — time to right the Memorial wrong!
Thursday, Friday U.S. Open Tee Times and Groupings (Times are PDT):
8 Comments
baxter cepeda
After las week DJ is highest on my list again. He showed signs last week. It could be the start of another run.
DJs old BFF Brooks was solid at Kiawah but Unlike his major run he was a dud at the end. And a dud last week. The walk at Torrey isn’t super hilly but definitely more challenging than Kiawah.
Rahm got benched because of COVID testing but testing also brought him back to the course a few days earlier than expected. Still; he lost some quality time. Quality time with his newborn cost him at the Masters. This could be the same story.
Hideki will not contend imo. Like Rahm The Japanese goat of golf has lost some serious time as well. He basically stack and tilts now which means less yards off the tee. That may have helped at Augusta National, but I don’t know about the south course.
Phil on the other hand is still “hitting bombs” and has not lost time after his win. If anything Lefty has had more time at Torrey than most. If I did bet I would no doubt put some on the sentimental favorite. He actually does have a chance. Almost too good of a chance. The whole thing would be too good to be true. But we can dream can’t we?
Bryson is definitely on the short list. He hasn’t been great of late but Torrey doesn’t have a ton of lost ball opportunities so he will be bombing and gouging to success like he did at the last US Open; where there also wasn’t a ton of places to lose balls. Of course everyone will try to claim it’s his putting. I don’t see enough form to get it done.
Of the not super bombers Higgs and Reed; who won the last event at Torrey; stand out. Reed is probably my dark horse. I’m still super annoyed what cbs did to him that day; rooting he has a chance to shut em up again.
Higgo won last week. He won 2 on the euro tour of the last 3 I believe. He cannot be denied at least a mention.
Of course There are many other contenders; even more than the 20 in the article; including old BFFs jordy and JT.
But again, the still worlds number 1 is showing signs; as phil had before his pga win. It could def be DJ time again.
Tom Edrington
I saw too many missed putts by DJ last week on the type of grass he is most familiar with…..don’t see him making enough putts on the POA…..everyone’s going with Rahm and after what happened to him at Memorial, it would be fitting if he won, too much talent to not win a major in the next 12 months.
baxter cepeda
Rahms first major is coming. It’s very possible he wins. His history at Torrey is great and his form at Jacks was dominant. But again the unplanned time off is an issue for me.
DJ gets a pass from me for missing some putts on that new gem of a course. The important thing for DJ is that he is hitting his trusty (albeit cheesy) pull fade again. Everyone’s going to miss putts at Torrey; but DJ should we quietly focusing on that remaining flat stick issue as we type. He has proven to be solid on Poa.
Tom Edrington
If you watched the Palmetto, DJ had a LOT of drives that not only missed the fairways, they were in spots where he had no chance to make par.
baxter cepeda
I didn’t comment on your article from last Sunday but I watched that.
DJ looked solid until he wasn’t on Sunday. Hadleys nerves down the stretch showed that place was more intimidating off the tee than it appeared. Of course Higgo showed nerves of steal chasing down what your boys girl Dottie would call a ‘choking dog’. But again DJ is showed signs. #1 obviously did. It have the full package going all week. It he is clearly trending up. It doesn’t take much for DJ to go from missed cuts to running away with events.
Anyhow Speaking of watching I’m concerned about watching the US open relying on tv off the internet at my folks house.
#super annoyed with new tech.
#i love cable more than I ever believed.
#why do advances seem to go backwards?
Tom Edrington
I’ve done the Peacock network, works well; there a LOT of coverage by the network as well….hope you don’t miss any of the good action!
baxter cepeda
I should be ok. I wish I could send my moms 2 poodles to your dog house. They messed with the internet connections and ate my slippers. And I have to be closing all these doors I never had to close before.
Tom Edrington
Baxter: Sounds like you have your own Dog House, good luck with that!