103rd PGA: Jordan Spieth Gets His Shot At Career Grand Slam

With the start of the season’s second major, the 103rd PGA Championship on Thursday, it’s once again time to enter the treacherous waters of that inexact science of trying to predict who may or may not win come Sunday at ritzy Kiawah Island.

The Ocean Course isn’t as brutal as it was back in 1991 when we got our first glimpse of the ocean-side Pete Dye masterpiece during the infamous War By The Shore.  The U.S. Ryder Cup team emerged victorious.  The last major played on this impressive coastal layout was the 2012 PGA where young Rory McIlroy won his second major.

First thing you’ll notice about the Ocean Course is its length — 7,876 yards.  One might think that’s advantage bombers but stray drives will be subject to disaster.  You can’t hit wild shots on this brute.  The winner will have to have a deft short game as well — that will become evident as the week goes on.

The wind is the most difficult variable, that and the weather.  The forecast is good, the wind will be there but not the kind that showed up during the second round back in 2012.  But you never know, seaside weather can be very unpredictable.

So speaking of predictions, let’s get right to it and take a look at who we think will contend this week:

Tier One:

Jordan Spieth:  As crazy as it might sound, we like Jordan Spieth to complete the career Grand Slam with a victory on Sunday.  He’s back doing Jordy-sort of things.  He’s making long putts, he hits great shots, not-so-great shots and is letting caddie Michael Greller and the rest of us know what’s going on with his ongoing commentary.  Jordy wears his heart on his sleeve.  He’s a winner again and many of the talking heads don’t believe he’s back to the level when he was winning major championships.  We think Jordy finds a way to get it done this week.

Jon Rahm:  Can we deem him The Best Player In The World Without A Major?  Yes.  At some point, Jon will put an end to that not-so-great moniker.  We believe he’s driving it well enough to set up the rest of his game this week.  He’ll need to have a GREAT putting week as that’s been the least-outstanding part of his very skilled repertoire.

Rory McIlroy:  He’s the betting favorite.  Rory hasn’t played since winning at Quail Hollow two weeks ago.  Rory’s got to have some level of comfort on this course and his driver is a weapon when it’s on and it needs to be on this week for him to have a shot at a fifth major.  His putting was pretty good at Quail Hollow but we can’t forget that three-wood he hit at 18 on Sunday.  If he hits any like that this week, good chance it’s a lost ball.  Odds-makers like Rory as the favorite.

Patrick Reed:  We have Reed in our Top Five mainly because of his putting and short-game prowess.  He’s been off his game lately but he might like what he sees at Kiawah this week.  Lots of those pesky waste areas where he can LEGALLY ground his club.

Justin Thomas:  Only if J.T. can keep his tee shots in play.  He’s been close and is overdue for a second major.

Tier Two:

Dustin Johnson:  We wonder about the state of D.J.’s knee?  He missed the cut in the season’s first major, The Masters, and the last time we saw him he was finishing a lowly T48 at The Valspar and hasn’t played since.  he was a WD last week at the Byron Nelson.  Not sure if he has a chance this week given his recent form but perhaps playing a major in his home state can get him going.  He’s still No. 1 unless J.T. wins this week and D.J. finishes lower than solo fifth.

Matt Fitzpatrick:  His lack of distance off the tee is a concern but with firm, fast conditions this week, that should help him.  He keeps improving and has the overall game to contend on a links course.

Hideki Matsuyama:  Looked decent last week after a month of inactivity.  Can Hideki win back-to-back majors?  The odds say that’s a tough ask but with his skill-set and new-found confidence, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see him hanging around this week.

Sergio Garcia:  Here’s one of our “surprise” guys.  His ball striking can get him in position but will his putter allow him to contend?

Tyrrell Hatton:  Played well for a while then went dormant.  Time for Tyrrell to bring his “A” game out of its recent slumber.

Tier Three:

Bryson DeChambeau:  Distance-obsessed, rules-arguing, Kyle Berkshire-admiring, U.S. Open winning, Masters-floundering, driver-switching Bryson’s power game didn’t work well at Augusta National.  He better not hit many wild ones this week or they’ll end up in places where large reptiles and other creatures dwell.  He better have some distance control with his irons, that was a problem off the variety of lies at Augusta.  His putting’s been off a bit as well.

Viktor Hovland:  Star in the making, he’ll be tough on the European Ryder Cup team in the fall.

Xander Scauffele:  Why do we keep picking this guy?

Cam Smith:  This kid’s a player and he keeps proving it.

Tony Finau:  Drives it like Tarzan, putts it like Jane.

Tier Four:

Paul Casey:  Plenty of power and accuracy.  Needs to make some putts.

Collin Morikawa: Defending champion simply can’t putt any more.  Saw him miss four straight four-footers in practice out on the course yesterday.

Tony Finau:  Drives it like Tarzan, putts it like Jane.

Patrick Cantlay:  This guy has fallen by the wayside lately.  If he were a stock, his price would be near an all-time low.  That foot shuffle when he stands over his putts can drive you nuts if you watch it too long.  Needs to step up this week.

Sam Burns:  Has gone 1-2 in his last two events which means he might finish third this week. 

Longshots:

Webb Simpson:  Why is this guy still in the world’s Top 10?

Daniel Berger:  Solid game, power fade, trending in the right direction.

Will Zalatoris:  If only he could putt;  Would have won an event by now!

Corey Conners:  Plays well and plays well often.

Brooks Koepka:  Playing The Masters showed how unready that knee is.

Garrick Higgo:  Love this new star on the European Tour.  A lefty with power and a nice short game, can putt too!

Robert MacIntyre:  Love the “New Lefty” from Scotland.  Highest ranked lefty in the world.  Sorry Phil Mickelson.

Max Homa:  His game’s been off lately but has the talent.

Tommy Fleetwood:  Nice ball-striker, putting is so very shaky.

No Shot: 

Phil Mickelson;  Shaun (The Fluke) McKeel;  Rich (too old) Beem;   John (walking will kill him) Daly;  Rickie Fowler (sitting in a beach chair in a bunker with a Corona in hand);  The 20 club professionals.

There you have it.  An exhausting list.

Some look better on paper than others but thankfully, major championships are won and lost on the course.

Thursday-Friday Tee Times and Groups:

Where To Watch:  Coverage Thursday and Friday will run from 1-7 p.m. on ESPN.  If you want early coverage, 7 a.m. to 1 p.m., you have to pay the “extortion” money and subscribe to ESPN-Plus, a sellout by the PGA of America.  No coverage of “Feature Groups” by PGA.com;  Reminds us how great The Masters remains.  

Editor’s Note:  The PGA Of America is allowing DMDs (Distance Measuring Devices), aka range-finders, to be used during play at this week’s championship.  “We’re always interested in methods that may help improve the flow of play during our championships,” Jim Richerson, the PGA’s president.  The PGA also will allow DMDs in the Women’s PGA and Senior PGA.  “The use of distance-measuring devices is already common within the game and is now a part of the Rules of Golf,” Richerson said. “Players and caddies have long used them during practice rounds to gather relevant yardages.”